₦300,000 MINIMUM WAGE: MẸKUNNU KỌYA BACKS FEDERAL WORKERS FORUM, CHALLENGES OPS ON ECONOMIC LOGIC
Growth Without Purchasing Power Is Not Shared Prosperity.
Mẹkunnu Kọya unequivocally supports the demand by the Federal Workers Forum for an immediate review of the salaries of federal civil servants and an upward review of the national minimum wage from the present ₦70,000 to ₦300,000.
We consider the argument by sections of the Organised Private Sector (OPS) that a ₦300,000 minimum wage would necessarily trigger hyperinflation, stagflation, massive job losses and economic dislocation to be incomplete and insufficiently supported by the totality of available economic evidence.
We do not dispute that a substantial wage increase can generate inflationary pressures if it is not accompanied by increased productivity and domestic production. But economic policy cannot reasonably focus exclusively on the possible inflationary consequences of higher wages while ignoring the demonstrable economic consequences of maintaining millions of workers on wages whose purchasing power has been severely eroded.
The fundamental question is:
What can ₦70,000 actually buy for a Nigerian worker in 2026, and can that amount reasonably sustain a worker and a family in today's economy?
The answer is increasingly obvious: ₦70,000 is grossly inadequate.
GDP IS GROWING — BUT HOUSEHOLD PURCHASING POWER REMAINS UNDER PRESSURE
The Federal Government has repeatedly pointed to improving macroeconomic indicators as evidence that its reforms are working.
The National Bureau of Statistics reports that Nigeria's real GDP grew by 3.89% year-on-year in Q1 2026.
The IMF projects Nigeria's real GDP growth at 4.1% in 2026, while nominal GDP is projected to rise from approximately ₦442 trillion in 2025 to ₦529 trillion in 2026.
The World Bank similarly says Nigeria has made meaningful progress in restoring macroeconomic stability, with economic growth remaining robust. But it simultaneously warns that household incomes have yet to recover fully and poverty remains high.
This is the contradiction that must be confronted.
If the Nigerian economy is growing, why should the Nigerian worker remain trapped at a wage whose purchasing power has been substantially destroyed by the cost-of-living crisis?
“GDP growth cannot become a statistic celebrated by government while the workers who produce the goods and services underlying that GDP are told that their wages must remain depressed indefinitely.”
Economic growth is meaningful only when it progressively improves the material conditions of the population.
DISINFLATION DOES NOT RESTORE LOST PURCHASING POWER
The OPS argument also needs to distinguish between falling inflation and falling prices.
The World Bank's April 2026 Nigeria Development Update notes that inflation declined to around 15%, but explicitly cautions that inflation remains high.
The IMF projects average consumer-price inflation of 16.0% in 2026, following an estimated 23.0% in 2025 and 33.2% in 2024.
This is critical.
A decline in inflation does not mean that prices have returned to their earlier levels.
Disinflation is not deflation.
When prices rise dramatically for several years and subsequently begin rising more slowly, the prices do not automatically return to where they were.
Consequently, workers cannot be told that because the inflation rate has declined, the existing ₦70,000 wage has somehow recovered its purchasing power.
It has not.
THE POVERTY DATA STRENGTHENS THE CASE FOR A LIVING WAGE
The IMF's 2026 Article IV consultation presents an even more compelling picture.
According to the IMF, poverty is estimated to have reached 63% at the national poverty line, while approximately 27 million Nigerians were estimated to have faced food insecurity in the autumn of 2025.
These are not abstract statistics.
They describe an economy in which a substantial proportion of the population is struggling to meet basic needs.
Therefore, the question before policymakers cannot simply be:
“Can employers afford to pay ₦300,000?”
There must be another equally important question:
“Can Nigerian workers afford to live on ₦70,000?”
If the answer is no, maintaining the existing wage also carries enormous economic costs.
Poverty, indebtedness, malnutrition, inability to pay school fees, inadequate healthcare, poor housing and declining worker productivity are not cost-free.
They impose costs on households, businesses and government.
₦300,000 IS NOT A DEMAND TO PRINT MONEY
Mẹkunnu Kọya does not advocate reckless monetary expansion or indiscriminate borrowing to finance wage increases.
Neither do we argue that wages can rise indefinitely without regard to productivity.
Our position is more rational:
Nigeria needs a wage-and-productivity strategy.
Higher wages must be accompanied by:
- increased domestic food production;
- improved electricity supply;
- lower energy costs;
- improved transportation infrastructure;
- reduced logistics costs;
- reduced multiple taxation;
- stronger industrial production;
- improved productivity;
- better public expenditure management;
- stronger revenue mobilisation; and
- targeted social protection.
The answer to low productivity cannot permanently be low wages.
The answer to low productivity is higher productivity.
REVENUE MUST ALSO SERVE THE PEOPLE
The government has undertaken significant revenue and fiscal reforms.
The World Bank's April 2026 Nigeria Development Update notes, among other measures, that a February 2026 Executive Order concerning taxes, royalties and profit oil under Production Sharing Contracts is expected to generate additional revenue equivalent to approximately 0.4% of GDP annually and improve transparency in oil-revenue flows.
This demonstrates an important principle:
Fiscal space is not entirely fixed.
Government can improve revenue collection.
Government can reduce leakages.
Government can improve tax administration.
Government can reform public expenditure.
Government can eliminate waste.
Government can reprioritise expenditure.
Therefore, the argument should not simply be that Nigeria cannot afford better wages.
The government should show Nigerians what it can afford, what it chooses to spend and what it is prepared to reprioritise.
DEBT MUST NOT BECOME AN EXCUSE FOR PERMANENT WAGE SUPPRESSION
Mẹkunnu Kọya recognises Nigeria's debt challenge.
The Debt Management Office continues to publish Nigeria's debt position and debt-service obligations, including the Federal Government's actual domestic and external debt-service payments for 2026.
We therefore do not advocate irresponsible borrowing.
But debt sustainability and workers' welfare are not mutually exclusive policy objectives.
The IMF has itself emphasised the importance of strengthening public financial management, improving budget processes and ensuring that reform gains benefit Nigerians.
The debate must therefore be about priorities, productivity and value for money, not simply whether Nigerian workers should remain on an inadequate wage.
THE PRIVATE SECTOR'S FEAR OF INFLATION DESERVES A BALANCED RESPONSE
Mẹkunnu Kọya acknowledges the concern expressed by the Organised Private Sector that a large wage increase could increase operating costs and inflation.
That concern deserves to be taken seriously.
But it is equally important to recognise that Nigerian inflation is not caused by wages alone.
The IMF's analysis identifies a combination of factors affecting inflation, including food and energy prices, exchange-rate developments and supply-side pressures.
It is therefore misleading to portray workers' demand for better wages as though it were the principal threat to macroeconomic stability.
Indeed, the opposite can also occur.
A worker who cannot afford adequate food, transportation, healthcare and housing is unlikely to achieve maximum productivity.
A hungry workforce is not a productive workforce.
An indebted workforce is not a productive workforce.
A workforce whose real income is continuously eroded is not the foundation of sustainable economic growth.
WORKERS ARE ALSO CONSUMERS
The OPS must also recognise that workers are consumers.
Every naira earned by a worker is recycled into the domestic economy through expenditure on:
- food;
- transportation;
- rent;
- education;
- healthcare;
- clothing;
- telecommunications;
- household goods; and
- other services.
A better-paid workforce therefore creates purchasing power and domestic demand.
The objective should be to ensure that increased purchasing power is accompanied by increased domestic production.
The correct economic strategy is therefore:
Higher wages + higher productivity + higher domestic production = stronger and more inclusive economic growth.
The alternative — suppressing wages while prices continue to rise — risks creating an economy in which businesses may produce goods but millions of Nigerians increasingly lack the purchasing power to buy them.
WHY ₦300,000?
Mẹkunnu Kọya does not pretend that ₦300,000 is a magical economic figure.
Rather, we understand the Federal Workers Forum's demand as a necessary negotiating benchmark for restoring the purchasing power and dignity of Nigerian workers after years of severe economic deterioration.
The figure should therefore be subjected to transparent negotiations among government, labour and employers.
But negotiations must begin from economic reality, not from the assumption that ₦70,000 is adequate.
If government considers ₦300,000 fiscally impossible, let it publish the numbers.
Let government publish:
- the number of federal workers affected;
- the present federal personnel bill;
- the additional annual cost of ₦300,000;
- projected revenue;
- projected productivity gains;
- savings from expenditure reforms;
- projected inflationary consequences; and
- the proposed financing mechanism.
Let Nigerians see the figures.
“Workers should not be asked to accept poverty on the basis of undocumented claims of unaffordability.”
OUR POSITION
Mẹkunnu Kọya therefore:
1. Supports the Federal Workers Forum's demand for an immediate review of federal workers' salaries.
2. Supports the proposed review of the national minimum wage from ₦70,000 toward ₦300,000, subject to transparent tripartite negotiations and a credible implementation framework.
3. Calls on the Federal Government to publish a complete fiscal impact assessment of the proposed ₦300,000 wage.
4. Calls for an automatic wage-review mechanism linked to inflation, productivity and the cost of living.
5. Calls for simultaneous measures to increase domestic production and reduce the cost of food, energy, transportation and housing.
6. Calls on government to reduce wasteful expenditure and redirect resources toward productive investment and human capital.
7. Calls on the Organised Private Sector to engage labour constructively rather than presenting workers' demand for a living wage as an economic threat.
8. Calls for a national wage-and-productivity pact under which wage improvements are accompanied by measures to increase productivity, reduce business costs and expand domestic production.
CONCLUSION: IF THE ECONOMY IS GROWING, WORKERS MUST GROW WITH IT
The central issue is not whether Nigeria's economy is growing.
The NBS says it is.
The IMF says real GDP is projected to grow by 4.1% in 2026, with nominal GDP projected at about ₦529 trillion.
The World Bank says macroeconomic stability has improved, inflation has eased and growth remains robust — but it also says household incomes have yet to recover fully and poverty remains high.
That is precisely why wage review is necessary.
Economic reform cannot be judged only by GDP, exchange rates, reserves or government revenue.
It must also be judged by what happens to the worker's purchasing power.
“If Nigeria's economy is growing, Nigerian workers must grow with it. If government revenue is increasing, workers must share in the national prosperity. If reforms are working, their benefits must be felt in the homes of ordinary Nigerians.”
Mẹkunnu Kọya therefore calls on President Bola Ahmed Tinubu, the National Assembly, organised labour and the Organised Private Sector to approach the ₦300,000 demand with empirical evidence, transparency and social responsibility.
We reject the false choice between economic growth and workers' welfare.
Nigeria needs both.
The objective should be an economy in which businesses remain viable, government remains fiscally responsible, productivity rises and workers receive wages that enable them to live with dignity.
₦70,000 cannot be treated as sacred while the cost of living continues to change.
The worker must not be permanently sacrificed in the name of economic reform.
If Nigeria's economy is recovering, the Nigerian worker must be allowed to recover with it.
Signed:
COMRADE WALE BALOGUN
Convener, Mẹkunnu Kọya
Writes from Lagos
September 8, 2026
